Some 75 million U.S. citizens will vote for Donald Trump this time around. That’s much more than the total populations of, say, Australia (27m), Canada (42m), or Korea (52m), for example.
Why do they vote for Trump? It is not simply racism, misogyny, and xenophobia sustained by misinformation and lies. They do not all fall into a basket of deplorables, as Hillary Clinton said in Sept. 2016.
There are three reasons people vote for Trump: 1.) institutions (political science), 2.) material conditions (political economy), and 3.) the cultural divide between elites and the self-described populous (sociology).
Institutions: Trump is a lucky beneficiary, or perhaps a canny exploiter, of the U.S.’s peculiar political system. First-past-the-post helps candidates like him.
Material Conditions: The U.S. economy boomed during Trump’s first term in office, up until COVID.
Cultural Divide: Voters aren’t divided by income or race, as they used to be. They are divided by education. The Democratic Party increasingly attracts the support of the professional, suburban, managerial class. They find Trump repulsive and unfit for office. The working classes, however, including an increasing share of the non-white working class, admire that Trump has made the right enemies, that he talks like them, talks _to_ them, and promises them a future in which they receive dignity and their just financial desserts, even if they know that these promises are unlikely to be kept. Tell me your educational level and I can tell you for whom you’re going to vote.
So there you have it: 75 million U.S. citizens are voting for Trump on Tuesday, or in early voting/ overseas voting, etc., and they have their reasons.
I, for one, endorse the Democratic Party candidate. I believe that Trump will weaponize the Dept. of Justice, cancel investigations into his crimes, and launch investigations into people he doesn’t like. I consider this erosion of the law to be detrimental to U.S. society above all else. I also believe that Trump will call out the military to face peaceful demonstrators. I consider this use of the military by the executive branch to be, again, detrimental to U.S. society. In short, I consider this to be the most important election of our lifetime. The fate of the post-1945 U.S.-led global order of multilateral institutions and open shipping lanes hangs in the balance. However, of course I’d say those things. Please see Point #3 “Cultural Divide,” above: I’m educated and I read.
In sum, see you Tuesday evening. Let’s go for a beer together.
Sources: The Economist, Blomberg, the “Legal Eagle” YouTube channel, and elsewhere.
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